Today I want to introduce you to the first concept I’m coining myself: Oz’s Razor.
For the uninitiated, razors are decision making tools that make complex ideas more understandable.
Oz’s Razor: A position of power alone is not a marker of competence and it has no inherent correlation with widespread knowledge of reality.
The way someone arrives in a position of power is always a combination of the following:
Competence in a narrow domain (stacking these narrow competencies increases the likelihood due to “Luck From Uniqueness”)
Their ideas are popular among a group.
Someone already in a position of power likes them (nepotism).
Coercion or persuasion (this can be benevolent or malevolent).
Because of what’s known as “The Halo Effect” we falsely assume people who become successful in some way gain qualities or expertise in other areas.
You assume that your favourite fitness influencer has a great family and sex life. Who wouldn’t with 1,000,000 followers and a six pack.
You assume this despite almost no crossover in the skills required to gain a six pack and be a good husband.
“Your heroes aren’t gods, they’re just regular people who probably got good at one thing by neglecting literally everything else.” — Jason Pargin
The best example of this fallacy is The Wizard of Oz.
Wicked spoilers ahead.
At the end of Wicked’s first act, we see the Wizard of Oz portrayed by glowing green, larger than life, menacing mask on a wall. An allegory of his perceived power.
“I am Oz, the great and terrible! Who are you and why do you seek me?”
After Oz recognizes Elphaba (The Wicked Witch Of The West), the portly old man saunters out from behind the wall.
“I know. It isn't much, is it? But people expect this sort of thing. You have to give people what they want. The thing is, I hardly ever let people meet the real me, but this being special occasion.”
Once acquaintances have been made Oz reveals that he needs Elphaba to prove herself. Elphaba is excited to do so, hoping that she can work with Oz to help restore order to the animal population who are being discriminated against. The animals in the land of Oz are anthropomorphized, they can speak.
Elphaba ends up “proving herself” by casting a spell from an old spellbook on behalf of Oz without knowing what would happen. Oz’s monkey servants grow demonic wings as a result.
“Won't they make perfect spies?” says Madame Morrible.
Elphaba realizes she’s been duped:
“You can't read this book at all! Can you? That's why you need enemies, and cages, and spies. You have no real power.”
The wizard had no special powers. He wasn’t smarter than anyone else. He needed to trick Elphaba into reading a spell to get what he needed, so HE could spy on the animals.
It turns out that the Wizard of Oz is nothing more than a fat old man with a little charisma.
No greater competence. No better understanding of reality.